The world’s energy markets concluded 2025 with their most dramatic annual downturn since the pandemic struck, recording losses approaching 20%. The crude sector now faces an extraordinary situation: three consecutive years of falling prices, a historic first that threatens producer revenues worldwide.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, prices have continued falling due to fundamental oversupply. Producers globally are extracting crude at rates far exceeding what global economic activity requires, creating what market observers characterize as cartoonish levels of excess supply. This glut overwhelms typical supply-demand dynamics that normally balance market pricing.
Political developments intensified downward pressure as diplomatic efforts toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed crude below $60 per barrel last month, reaching levels not seen in nearly five years. Markets worry that removing western sanctions on Russian energy exports would inject massive additional supplies into an already overwhelmed system, potentially accelerating the price decline.
The year ended with Brent crude at $60.85 per barrel, down markedly from approximately $74 at the end of 2024. American oil benchmarks followed parallel patterns, declining 20% to $57.42. The OPEC cartel typically attempts to manage member production to keep prices high enough for healthy revenues without becoming so elevated that consumers switch to low-carbon alternatives, but this strategy has failed against current market realities.
Economic headwinds from major economies and trade war impacts have dampened demand from China, the world’s primary energy consumer. International energy officials estimate supplies will exceed consumption by roughly 3.8 million barrels per day this year, even after OPEC deferred production increases. Major investment banks predict further weakness ahead, with some projecting prices could fall to $55 per barrel by spring or decline into the $50s during 2026. Lower fuel prices could benefit struggling families and help cool inflation, though retailers face pressure to pass savings to customers more quickly, and household energy bills are rising slightly despite the crude price crash.